Title Run
La Liga title odds
Simulation updated 23 Sept 2026, 06:51 UTC · matchday 7
- FavoriteBarça67.71% to win the league
- Title gap55.79%Lead over 2nd in title probability
- Madrid#49.29% · 73.9 pts proj.
- Field avg52.8Projected points across all clubs
Title race
Favorite
#1Barça
Title probability 67.71%
86.4 pts avg · 52–112 range · Elo 1700
Challenger
#2Atleti
Title probability 11.93%
75.2 pts avg · 41–101 range · Elo 1637
Contender
#3Real Betis
Title probability 9.33%
73.9 pts avg · 42–102 range · Elo 1628
Model charts
Gold = Real Madrid · navy = rest of the field
Title probability
Top clubs by Monte Carlo title share
xG vs xGA
Attacking output vs chances conceded (per game)
Projected points band
Simulation min–max range for title contenders
Next 5
Showing next 5 fixtures for Real Madrid CF.
Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Villarreal
xG 1.81xGA 1.41Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Sevilla FC
xG 1.04xGA 1.61Away fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Barça
xG 2.62xGA 1.33away
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18Away fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Santander
xG —xGA —away
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18Away fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Valencia
xG 1.42xGA 1.46away
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18
Full projections
Gold edge = title race · navy edge = Europe chase
20 clubs ranked
| Rank | Club | Title % | Probability | Projected points | xG | xGA | Points band | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Barça | Barça FC Barcelona | 67.71% | 86.452–112 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 1700 | ||
