Title Run
La Liga title odds
Simulation updated 5 Aug 2026, 20:35 UTC · matchday 0
- FavoriteBarça29.23% to win the league
- Title gap7.61%Lead over 2nd in title probability
- Madrid#221.62% · 72.3 pts proj.
- Field avg52.8Projected points across all clubs
Title race
Favorite
#1Barça
Title probability 29.23%
74.5 pts avg · 36–105 range · Elo 1700
Challenger
#2Real Madrid
Title probability 21.62%
72.3 pts avg · 37–104 range · Elo 1679
Contender
#3Villarreal
Title probability 14.70%
69.7 pts avg · 36–102 range · Elo 1658
Model charts
Gold = Real Madrid · navy = rest of the field
Title probability
Top clubs by Monte Carlo title share
xG vs xGA
Attacking output vs chances conceded (per game)
Projected points band
Simulation min–max range for title contenders
Next 5
Showing next 5 fixtures for Real Madrid CF.
Away fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Espanyol
xG 1.38xGA 1.65away
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Real Sociedad
xG 1.57xGA 1.59Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Málaga
xG —xGA —Away fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Betis
xG 1.61xGA 1.32away
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Rayo Vallecano
xG 1.58xGA 1.48
Full projections
Gold edge = title race · navy edge = Europe chase
20 clubs ranked
| Rank | Club | Title % | Probability | Projected points | xG | xGA | Points band | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Barça | Barça FC Barcelona | 29.23% | 74.536–105 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 1700 | ||
